Ukraine Betting on RUSSIA CRACKING SOMEHOW! /Glenn Diesen & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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The discussion argues that if Ukraine’s military collapses and Russia emerges with a clear victory, the global consequences—especially for Europe—would be significant and negative for the West.

Key points:

Ukrainian frustration toward Europe: Ukrainians are increasingly resentful, believing Europe used them to “buy time” against Russia rather than genuinely helping them win. Some prominent Ukrainians (e.g., Arestovych) predict a future backlash against Zelensky and a push for a long-term settlement with Russia.

Europe’s decline in a multipolar world:

Europe has cut itself off from Russian energy and markets while the U.S. is expected to shift attention elsewhere. As Russia redirects its economic ties toward China, India, and the Global South, European economies become less competitive. Europe’s global relevance diminishes.

BRICS and Global South perceptions:

A Russian victory, despite massive Western support for Ukraine, reinforces the view in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America that the Western-led order is weakening. Countries may shift investment and political alignment toward BRICS or other non-Western blocs.

China’s view:

Chinese analysts see the Ukraine conflict as accelerating the transition to a multipolar world. They view Russia as a key partner helping build new economic systems: non-SWIFT trade, new transport corridors, industrial hubs, and institutions independent of the U.S.-led order.

Europe’s rhetoric vs. battlefield reality:

As Ukraine’s military position worsens, European leaders respond with increasingly unrealistic rhetoric and symbolic gestures—long-range strike proposals, fighter jet deals that won’t matter for years. This is seen as compensatory behavior for military failures.

European insistence on Russian “concessions”:

Leaders like Estonia’s Kaja Kallas demand Russia agree to a ceasefire and major concessions—essentially surrender—even as Ukraine is losing ground. The speaker calls these demands detached from reality.

Why Russia rejects a ceasefire:

A ceasefire now would allow Europe to rearm Ukraine and prolong the war, similar to the Minsk Agreements. Russia prefers to continue until it secures its objectives.

U.S.–Russia as the real negotiating parties:

The argument is that Europe is irrelevant to peace talks; only the U.S. and Russia can settle the war. Europeans, in this view, want to prolong the conflict rather than end it.

Responsibility for the war:

The speaker lists actions by the U.S. and Europe—support for the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, sabotage of Minsk agreements, blocking of peace attempts in 2019–2022, and years of arming Ukraine—as evidence that Western governments helped create and escalate the war.