Traders DON'T CARE About the Crop Tour

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Here’s the latest update from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and market news:

🌾 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:

Minnesota: Corn yield potential was pegged at 164.9 bpa, significantly down from last year and the lowest since 2012. USDA’s projection remains at 185 bpa, unchanged from last year. Excessive rainfall early in the growing season likely contributed to the reduced yield potential. Soybean pod counts were closer to the three-year tour average, showing relatively better potential.

Iowa: Corn yield potential was recorded at a tour-record 192.8 bpa, up from last year’s 185.8 bpa. USDA's recent projection is a record 209 bpa. Soybean pod counts were notably higher than last year and close to the 2010 tour record. USDA projects Iowa’s soybean yield at 61 bpa, up from 58 bpa last year.

🚂 Canadian Rail Strike Update:

Resolution: Workers at Canadian National Railway will return to work today, following government intervention to end the work stoppage. The strike continues at Canadian Pacific Kansas City, but negotiations are ongoing. Rail operations are expected to resume within days, with a full recovery of shipments taking about a week.

🌱 US Export Commitments:

New Crop: US corn and soybean export commitments for the new crop are weaker than average. New crop soybean sales are the worst since 2019, with Chinese purchases being the 3rd worst in the last 10 years. New crop corn export commitments are the 5th worst in the last decade, with no purchases from China.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor:

Conditions: Drought conditions worsened in several key areas:

Corn: 7% affected

Soybeans: 8% affected

Winter Wheat: 45% affected

Spring Wheat: 21% affected

Cattle: 21% affected

Notable deterioration was seen in Ohio, northern Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the western Dakotas. See USDA's drought PDF HERE.

🌱 USDA Flash Sales:

Recent Sales:

198,000 mt (7 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

110,490 mt (4 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

105,000 mt of soybean cake and meal to Vietnam for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

132,000 mt (5 million bushels) of corn to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Preview: USDA’s monthly cattle on feed report will be released this afternoon at 2:00 pm CST. Pre-report estimates expect cattle on feed as of August 1 to be steady compared to last year, with July placements up 3.2% and marketings up 8.1% year-over-year. A report meeting these expectations is likely to be viewed as bearish for the market.

Stay tuned for more updates and insights as the season progresses! 🌽📈🚂