MONSTER Soybean Crop + Impossible Old Crop Situation

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🌽 Crop Estimates Update:

Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.

Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.

Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.

⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:

Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.

Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.

📉 Fund Traders' Position:

Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.

Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.

Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.

📦 USDA Flash Sale:

Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).

🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:

Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.

Key Numbers:

Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.

Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.

Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.

Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:

Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.

Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.

Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.