Is China LYING About its Grain Situation?

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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Here’s the latest news in the grain and biofuels markets:

🌾 China’s Import Restrictions:

Barley and Sorghum: China is proposing new restrictions on barley and sorghum imports to address domestic oversupply and improve local prices. Sorghum imports have surged, nearly doubling this year, with the US supplying 80% of the total. This follows earlier restrictions on corn imports for the same reasons. Currently, Chinese corn, sorghum, and barley prices are at or near their lowest in over three years, and corn inventories at southern ports are nearing a two-year high.

🌾 Canadian Wheat Production:

Lower Estimates: Canada’s wheat production is now expected to increase by about 4% this year to approximately 34.4 million metric tons (mmt), lower than the previous estimate of 35.1 mmt. The reduction is due to hot and dry conditions impacting crop yields. Global wheat stocks have been declining for five consecutive years and are projected to hit a nine-year low in the 2024/2025 season, exacerbated by unfavorable conditions in Russia.

🌾 GMO Wheat Approval:

HB4 Trait: The USDA has approved the production of GMO wheat with the drought-tolerant HB4 trait, developed by Argentina-based Bioceres Crop Solutions. This herbicide-resistant wheat is now approved in the US, Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina. The approval is expected to benefit both farmers and consumers, as per the US Wheat Associates.

🌾 US Used Cooking Oil Imports:

Surge in Imports: US imports of used cooking oil (UCO) have surged by 240% between 2022 and 2023, with China supplying 60% of the total. The boom in the biofuels industry is driving this increase. Recent EU tariffs on Chinese biodiesel imports are expected to further boost US imports of Chinese UCO due to a global market surplus. Concerns over fraudulent UCO imports have been raised by US farm organizations and lawmakers.

🌾 US Ethanol Production:

Decline and Demand: US ethanol production decreased to 1.07 million barrels per day last week, down 2.5% from the previous week but up 2.2% from the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.6 million barrels, showing a slight decrease from the previous week but a 3.4% increase year-over-year. Implied gasoline demand rose by 1.2% week-over-week and 4.5% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, implied gasoline demand is up by 1% compared to last year.

🌾 USDA Flash Sales:

Recent Sales: On Wednesday, US exporters sold:

264,000 metric tons (10 million bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

100,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of corn to Colombia for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

165,735 metric tons (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

Stay tuned for more updates and make sure to adapt your strategies to these evolving market conditions! 🌽🌾📉