"China Will Have Enough Beans Without US Beans"

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🌱 China Buys Argentine Soybeans

China jumped on Argentina’s suspension of its 26% soybean export tax and purchased 10–15 cargoes for November delivery. Reports now suggest total purchases could be 20 cargoes this week alone. Normally, this business would have gone to the US, but the trade war has shifted flows. Argentina’s crushers warn that local supply is tightening, idle crushing capacity is rising, and jobs are being lost.

📈 Grain Market Reaction

Corn futures gained nearly 5 cents with Dec25 closing near $4.26. Soybeans edged higher to $10.12, while both Kansas City and Chicago wheat also finished stronger. Optimism tied to possible US-China trade progress provided a lift.

🤝 US-China Meeting

A Chinese trade envoy, Li Chenggang, met with US Midwest leaders in Beijing on Monday. Details are thin, but the meeting was confirmed by China’s Ministry of Commerce. It fueled fresh hopes for trade progress even as China avoids US soybeans.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Ukraine Shift

At the UN, Trump surprised leaders by saying Ukraine could win back land from Russia, a reversal from his earlier push for quick peace talks. This marks a potential shift in US policy, signaling stronger backing for Kyiv.

🐂 USDA Cattle Herd Plan

The USDA says it will soon launch a plan to help rebuild the US cattle herd, mentioned in a statement on screwworm control. No details yet, but the program could reshape beef supplies and pricing.

🌳 EU Deforestation Law Delay

Europe has postponed its anti-deforestation law again. The rules would restrict imports of soybeans, beef, and more. Admin hurdles and IT issues caused the delay, but costs could ripple across the supply chain once implemented.

💵 US Economy Update

Fed Chair Powell warned of upside inflation risks and downside jobs risk, leaving October’s rate decision uncertain. Tariffs are pushing prices higher, while labor supply shrinks under tighter immigration enforcement.

🌽 Flash Corn Sale

USDA reported a 5 million bushel corn sale to Mexico. Most will ship in 2025/26, with the rest in 2026/27.

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