Building Drought vs. Record USDA Yield Estimates: Which Story Wins??
September 12, 2025
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🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇
🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.
Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%
📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up
🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%) – Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%) – Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%) – Japan top buyer
🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.
📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.
👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!
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