Grain Markets and Other Stuff
Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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Trump's "Silly and Misguided" Cooking Oil Threat

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October 15, 2025

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🇺🇸 Trump Eyes Cooking Oil Embargo Against China

President Trump is considering a cooking oil embargo targeting China 🇨🇳. The move follows Beijing’s refusal to buy U.S. soybeans — which Trump called an “economically hostile act.”

🛢️ Biofuels & UCO Trade Shift

Chinese used cooking oil (UCO) exports hit record highs in 2024, with the U.S. buying 1.3 MMT — 43% of total exports. But those imports have likely plunged this year since biofuel tax incentives for imported UCO were eliminated. Trump says the U.S. can produce its own cooking oil supply.

🌱 Soybean Market Update

Soybean futures ticked slightly lower Tuesday despite strong export inspections — 994,000 MT last week, the best since February. Top buyers: Mexico, Spain & Bangladesh.

Corn and wheat shipments were mixed as traders remain cautious with the USDA data delay during the government shutdown.

🚢 Port Fees & Trade Tensions

Trump’s new U.S. port fees are adding pressure to Chinese shipping companies like COSCO & OOCL. China has retaliated with special vessel fees on certain U.S. ships.

👉 Note: Most grain shipments are exempt thanks to strong farm-group pushback.

🌎 Brazil Crop Outlook

🇧🇷 Conab projects record soybean output at 177.6 MMT, up 3.5% YoY, with exports near 112 MMT. Corn output seen at 138.6 MMT, exports 46.5 MMT (+16%).

Guests & Subjects Covered

UCO Trade Shift ChineseSoybean Market Update SoybeanFebruary TopMexico SpainBangladesh CornPort FeesTrade Tensions TrumpsOOCL China

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Trump's "Silly and Misguided" Cooking Oil Threat · Grain Markets and Other Stuff · Sentinel