Soybean Prices Hit Calendar-Year High on Trade Deal Hopes: But is it All Just Talk??

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🌾 Welcome to today’s grain market update!

Soybean futures surged to their highest level since June as optimism grows that China may resume U.S. soybean purchases following President Trump’s comments on a potential trade deal with President Xi.

🌤️ Weather & Harvest Progress

Corn and soybean harvests are nearly wrapped up across the U.S. Analysts estimate the corn harvest at 72% complete and soybeans at 84%, both slightly behind last year’s record pace. Rain slowed progress in parts of the Corn Belt, but steady combining continues elsewhere. With the government still shut down, no official Crop Production or WASDE report is expected on November 10th.

🌎 Global Market Trends

Brazilian planting is racing ahead — 36% of soybeans and 55% of first-crop corn are in the ground, matching last year’s pace. Conab pegs Brazil’s soybean crop at 177.6mmt (+3.6% YoY) and corn output at 138.6mmt (-1.8% YoY). See Brazil and Argentina weather maps below for more context.

🚢 Export & Shipment Data

U.S. soybean inspections were disappointing at 1.1mmt — the weakest seasonal figure since 2011/12. Corn shipments were 1.2mmt, and wheat came in light at just 258kmt. Top soybean destinations included Indonesia, Israel, and Italy.

🐂 Livestock & Policy Watch

Cattle markets were hammered again Monday. Feeder cattle contracts hit expanded limits, and live cattle dropped sharply amid news of expanded Argentine beef imports and possible Mexican feeder cattle inflows. A Trump–Brazil meeting also hinted at renewed Brazilian beef trade.