Farmers Need Lower Input Costs, But Trump Wants to Tariff Fertilizer AGAIN

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🌱 Fertilizer Markets

Fertilizer stocks surged Thursday after Ukrainian drones struck two fertilizer plants in western Russia.

While the facilities represent a small share of global capacity, the market is now pricing in higher geopolitical risk and potential supply chain disruptions.

Earlier this week, President Trump threatened “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer if needed to boost US production.

Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the US, making this a key risk point for US growers.

For many US corn farmers, fertilizer is the 3rd largest expense behind land and machinery.

Nitrogen (N): ~65–75% of total fertilizer costs

Potash (K): ~10–20% of total fertilizer costs

Last month, the Trump administration lifted tariffs on most fertilizer imports, including urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN, ammonium sulfate, TSP, DAP, and MAP.

See fertilizer charts below 📊

🌎 Export Flash Sales

Soybeans:

264,000 mt to China (25/26)

266,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)

Corn:

186,000 mt to unknown destinations (25/26)

See updated China Soybean Purchase Tracker below 📉

Tracker may be imperfect due to the government shutdown and delayed USDA data releases.

📦 Weekly Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)

Corn: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, well above expectations

Mexico was the top buyer

Soybeans: Near the low end of expectations but improved week-over-week

Germany was the largest buyer

Small China cancellation

Wheat: Sales beat expectations sharply

Unknown destinations led buying

See charts below 📊

🇧🇷 South America Update

Conab trimmed Brazil’s soybean crop forecast to 177.1 mmt

Still a record crop if realized

Cut reflects dry November weather and some replanting

About 90% planted as of early December

First exportable supplies expected early January

Total exports estimated at 112 mmt

See Brazil & Argentina weather maps below 🌦️

🌦️ US Drought Monitor

Corn Belt saw cold temps with most moisture falling as snow

Drought mostly unchanged, but worsened in parts of MO and IN

High Plains dryness ticked higher in SE Kansas and NE Oklahoma

Areas Experiencing Drought:

🌽 Corn: 31%

🌱 Soybeans: 31%

🌾 Winter Wheat: 34%

🌾 Spring Wheat: 16%

🐄 Cattle: 25%