Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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RUMOR MILL: Did China Just Return to the US Corn Market??
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December 19, 2025
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Corn futures moved higher for a second straight session. The Mar26 contract settled near $4.45, supported by strong export demand.
Accumulated US corn sales through the end of November are running well ahead of last year.
Wheat futures finished higher on short covering but remain near two-month lows.
Soybean futures continued to slide, pressured by uncertainty around Chinese buying.
There was chatter of possible Chinese purchases of US corn out of the PNW (several cargoes). A USDA flash sale today or Monday would confirm the business.
🥩 Beef Prices
Beef prices remain near record highs.
Ground beef prices jumped again in November, now well above last year’s levels.
Steak prices have also climbed sharply, depending on the cut.
The biggest driver continues to be the smallest US cowherd in more than 70 years, paired with strong consumer demand.
The Trump administration recently removed tariffs on Brazilian beef imports and called for a price-fixing investigation into the major packers.
Despite higher projected beef imports, prices are expected to stay elevated.
🌱 USDA Flash Sales
USDA reported a flash sale of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.
A large volume of soybeans has now been sold to unknown destinations this year, with speculation that China accounts for roughly half.
📦 Export Sales Report
Corn export sales were strong again, with Japan leading buyers.
Soybean sales slowed from the prior week, though China was the top buyer.
Wheat sales increased week over week, with Bangladesh leading purchases.
📉 Inflation Update
CPI eased in November, coming in below expectations.
Food and energy prices were key contributors to slower inflation.
The data was collected later than usual due to the government shutdown, raising questions about accuracy.
There’s concern inflation could reaccelerate in December.
🌧️ Drought Monitor
Scattered precipitation improved drought conditions in parts of Iowa and Ohio.
Drought worsened in portions of Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri.
Conditions across the High Plains were mostly unchanged.
US Areas Experiencing Drought
Corn: 32%
Soybeans: 33%
Winter Wheat: 36%
Spring Wheat: 16%
Cattle: 27%
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