China Buys MORE - "Soybean Farmer" Bessent says they're On Schedule

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🇨🇳 China Steps Up US Soybean Buying

China made major purchases of US soybeans this week. Since Tuesday, Chinese buyers have booked an estimated 10–15 cargoes — roughly $300 million in value. These sales followed President Trump’s call with Xi Jinping, during which Trump urged China to accelerate purchases, and Xi largely agreed. All cargoes are slated for January shipment out of Gulf Coast and PNW ports.

I updated the China Soybean Purchase Tracker below and assumed 12 cargoes were sold yesterday. If this is accurate, China must now average 373,640mt per business day to hit the 12mmt White House target by January 1.

So far, about 39% of the business days have passed — but China has completed only ~22% of the “commitment.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that US soybean exports to China are “right on schedule.” The Trump administration claims China has agreed to buy 12mmt before Jan 1 and 25mmt annually for the next three years. China has not officially confirmed these numbers, but Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins expects confirmation in the coming weeks.

🕊️ Ukraine–Russia Peace Framework?

Multiple sources say Ukraine is ready to move forward with a US-backed peace framework. The original US proposal — once 28 points and seen as favorable to Russia — has been cut to 19 revised points after input from both sides.

Russia has not yet confirmed its position, and major terms are still unresolved. US officials will continue negotiations this week.

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning Update

CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report:

Funds sold 54k corn contracts → net short grows to 188k, the largest since early July.

Funds sold 1k soybean and 15k SRW wheat contracts.

SRW wheat net short of 111k is the biggest since mid-May.

Private estimates for yesterday’s close:

Corn: –110k

Soybeans: +120k

SRW Wheat: –65k

CFTC expects to be fully current by late January. Charts below.

🚢 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Report)

For the week ending Oct 9:

Corn: 1.3mmt — down 41%

Soybeans: 785k mt — down 15%

Wheat: 613.9k mt — down 31%

Mexico was the top buyer across all three. Charts below.

🎰 Online Betting Risks Are Growing

Bank of America warns that online betting and prediction markets are driving higher debt loads, especially among low-income consumers and young men.

Research shows:

Lower credit scores

Higher bankruptcy rates

More debt going to collections

Prediction markets have surged, letting people bet “yes/no” on everything from elections to sports.

Personally, I continue to have major issues with the online casinos like DraftKings and FanDuel. They routinely:

Limit winning bettors

Encourage losing bettors to wager more

One UC San Diego analysis of 700,000 gamblers found only ~4% were profitable over five years.