"84% of MAX Net Long" - Fund Traders LOVE the Corn Market

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🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands — including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway — "totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️

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📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)

🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long.

🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k — the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.

🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.

See Fund Tracker charts and Daily Fund Tracker below. ⬇️

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📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP

🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu — on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu — supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.

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📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CST

USDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. See pre-report estimates below. ⬇️

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🏦 FED & MACRO

Goldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.

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⛽ FUEL PRICES

National average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.