Grain Prices Tumble on US/Iran "Progress"

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🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House.

🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts.

⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive.

🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.