Drought DESTROYS Southern Plains Wheat Crop - Why Aren't Prices Higher??

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🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.

📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.

⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.

🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.

💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.

🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers — cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.

🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.