"But China Didn't Sign Anything!" - Traders Buy Grains Now, Will Ask Questions Later

Joe's Premium Subscription

Apple Podcasts

Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board.

US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels — down 36% from last year.

Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days.

Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end — well above the central bank's 3% target — largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%.

US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations.

President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.