Iran War Update

Trump’s Iran war keeps getting bigger, messier, and more incoherent. The administration’s goals appear to be shifting again, from nukes to destroying Iran’s broader military capacity, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and somehow claiming “regime change” has already happened because enough Iranian leaders were killed. At the same time, the Pentagon is reportedly preparing for possible ground operations, Trump is threatening to bomb even more civilian infrastructure, and the White House is now talking to Iranian figures who are being sold as reasonable even though experts say they’re anything but.

The war is also widening across the region and creating more economic fallout. The Houthis have entered more openly, major shipping chokepoints are under threat, Iran is still making huge oil money, and energy markets are getting hit, with oil up, gas near four dollars a gallon, and jet fuel prices in Europe soaring. Iran also reportedly wounded US troops in Saudi Arabia, while NATO tensions are growing, Spain has closed its airspace to US war flights, and even parts of Europe’s far right are using this moment to push for fewer US troops on the continent.

Politically, the war looks weak and potentially toxic at home. Polls show Trump with terrible approval numbers overall and clear public opposition to military action against Iran. There are also new reports about civilian deaths from a US missile strike, Republicans considering health care cuts to help pay for the war, and growing criticism even from people on the right who want to know who talked Trump into this mess. Taken together, the picture is of a war with unstable goals, widening risks, rising costs, and very shaky public support.