Election Expert Already Calling It For Kamala Harris

Now that both presidential tickets are secured, the predictions about who will win the election are coming in fast. From bookies to psychics, to data analysts, everyone thinks they know exactly who is going to win right now. Mike Papantonio & Farron Cousins discuss more.

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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

Now that both presidential tickets are secured, the predictions about who's gonna win the election are coming in fast. They're coming from bookies. They're coming from psychics. They're coming from data analysis. Everybody thinks they know exactly who's gonna win. You know what caught my eye is this Allan Lichtman. He, Allan apparently says, you know, he's been calling them, I've been really kinda looking behind that. It's not quite as accurate as everybody's saying, but according to him, Harris has won. Election's over. He says, all I have to do to really secure what I'm saying is I just need to wait for the Democratic convention. And then, yes, I've said she's gonna win four or five times. Yes, I changed my mind maybe in between there. It's like, it's blowing with the wind. But he says she's gonna win. So all you Harris people out there go celebrate. It's over. Harris is gonna be the next president, right?

According to Lichtman, again, unofficially, but it'll be official soon. But Lichtman's got these 13 keys, and they're actually, I didn't realize how big these 13 keys were, they really do have their own life on the internet. And he says, most of them right now, like the incumbency, is the economy good, things like that.

Let's go down the list. Have some fun. First of all, it is 13 keys, like you just said. He has a site where he has 52,000 subscribers. He's a professor, was is it, Washington University?

American University.

American University. He says, I really look to things like social unrest, third party candidates, foreign policy features to what my decision. But the list is, and we'll put it up, I think it's pretty interesting. He says, well, look at party mandate. The incumbent holds more seats than the other. That's important here. We gotta look at, what is the party mandate? The contest, the candidate is motivated, he's nominated on the first ballot. Okay. We have a candidate in a normal situation that's nominated on the first ballot. That's important. The incumbent already in the office, obviously incumbency is important. Third party, who are they? Can they carry more than 5% of the votes? That's a big factor. Short term economy, whether you're in a recession or talking about recession. Right. Long-term economy, increased per capita growth. Policy change, the administrative achieves a new deal, quality kind of policy change. The scandal. Is there a scandal? Yes or no? Military failure or success? Big factor. Charisma. Is the person a national hero? If they're not a national hero, do they have just a natural kind of charisma about 'em? And then does the challenger have a natural charisma, or are they not inspirational? This is exactly the list. He says he's used this and he says it's almost bulletproof.

Well, and another one too there is, did they have a nasty primary? And that's where she has a huge benefit, obviously.

Oh, yes, yes, yes.

She was not in a primary. She had 12 hours where there was, maybe it'll be her, maybe it'll be somebody else. After that, the party really quickly fell in line. But I do love the stories like this, because we get them every four years. And there was a time, we talking about this, I think it was 2008, you had all these fortune tellers that started going on the media. And you'll see it this year. We'll get around September, October, they'll start bringing in the psychics. They'll bring in the tarot card readers, and those people will start making their predictions about who is gonna win for president.

Didn't you do a story on how absurd it was? How crazy.

Yeah, we did.

It was just so wrong. It was just so radically wrong.

Well, and in 2004, they all predicted John Kerry's gonna win in a massive landslide.

Oh, absolutely, absolutely.