Daniel Davis Deep Dive
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Ukraine: Take it or Leave it/Larry Johnson & Lt Col Daniel Davis
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December 3, 2025
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Russia’s negotiating stance has hardened significantly since early 2022.
March 2022: Russia was willing to leave Ukraine intact if it received guarantees—protection for Russian speakers in Donbas and a firm commitment that NATO would stay out of Ukraine. Ukraine and the West rejected that offer.
June 2024: Russia’s terms expanded. Moscow now demands permanent control over five territories, removal of NATO influence, and new Ukrainian elections to produce a “legally constituted” government before any real talks can occur. Putin has repeatedly warned that if this offer is rejected, the next one will be even tougher.
The discussion in Moscow with Witkoff and Kushner wasn’t real negotiation—it was preparation explaining Russia’s non-negotiable red lines and setting the stage for what actual negotiations may look like once Ukraine has new leadership. The speaker describes this phase as “not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning”: the orchestration before real talks begin.
Putin has publicly said that true negotiations will only involve Lavrov, Medinsky, and Ushakov. Their absence from the recent meeting signals that this was only pre-negotiation groundwork.
Russia also refuses to negotiate with Zelensky or Zaluzhny, claiming their mandates are illegitimate. They insist only a newly elected Ukrainian government can sign any agreement.
Europe is portrayed as irrelevant to the process—shut out by Russia and desperately trying to insert itself. Statements by European leaders calling for more military spending and more battlefield pressure highlight their disconnect from the ongoing U.S.–Russia dialogue.
The U.S. may have recently cut off military aid to Ukraine, and the U.S. Secretary of State skipped a key NATO meeting, which the speaker interprets as signs that Washington’s patience is running out—especially as corruption scandals spread through the Ukrainian leadership.
Corruption allegations are described as far broader than publicly known, potentially involving U.S. lawmakers and European officials. Zelensky is suggested as a likely “fall guy,” but removing him is risky because he might reveal what he knows.
Ukrainian officials continue insisting on their own “red lines”:
No recognition of Russian control of occupied land
No limits on Ukrainian military capabilities
No restrictions on choosing alliances (including NATO)
“Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”
The speaker argues that these demands are unrealistic given the battlefield situation and Russia’s stronger negotiating position.
Overall, the segment portrays:
Russia as firm, legalistic, and holding the advantage
Ukraine as politically constrained and internally collapsing
Europe as sidelined
The U.S. as the only actor Russia takes seriously
And that the current stage is still preparation, not true peace negotiations.
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