PUTIN WILL DECIDE WHEN WAR ENDS /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Putin’s Message: Russia is Confident and Sets the Terms

Putin stated:

Russia did not “start” the Ukraine war; it only responded to an earlier conflict started by the West.

The “special military operation” is, in his view, an attempt to end a war, not start one.

Russia will decide when the war ends, not Ukraine and not the West.

This reflects Russia’s view that:

It has a stronger manpower position than Ukraine.

Western political support is weakening.

NATO cannot sustain Ukraine indefinitely.

Russia’s domestic political stability (Putin’s ~80% approval rating) far exceeds that of Western leaders.

By contrast, he portrays Zelensky's statements as “cocky bravado” that cannot be backed by military or political power.

Putin’s Broader Narrative About the Origin of the Conflict

Putin reiterated Russia’s longstanding claims:

The West orchestrated the 2014 Maidan coup in Ukraine.

Violence in Crimea and Donbas was already ongoing before 2022.

Russia tried for eight years to resolve the issues peacefully through the Minsk Agreements.

Western leaders admitted the Minsk deals were intended to buy time for Ukraine to arm itself.

Russia eventually recognized the separatist republics and intervened because civilians in Donbas were being killed.

The speaker stresses these are Putin’s claims, not necessarily objective facts—but they are essential to understanding Russia’s negotiating position.

Key Point: Western Denial of Russia’s View Hinders Diplomacy

The speaker argues Western leaders:

Treat Putin as a caricature (a “Hitler figure”), making negotiation impossible.

Refuse to acknowledge that Russia has a coherent perspective or legitimate security concerns.

Are unwilling to consider reality-based diplomacy, insisting instead on total victory for Ukraine.

He names leaders like Starmer, Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, Rutte, and Friedrich Merz as examples of those refusing meaningful engagement.

This attitude, he argues, ensures:

The war will continue,

Negotiation options will shrink,

And Russia will eventually impose terms militarily if diplomacy fails.

Final Takeaway

The overall message:

Trump’s attempt to pull India away from Russia has backfired.

India remains firmly non-aligned and values independence above all.

Putin used the visit to reinforce Russia’s position and send a message to Trump’s team.

Russia believes time, momentum, manpower, and political stability are all on its side.

Western refusal to acknowledge Russia’s worldview prevents progress toward ending the war.

If the West continues its current approach, the war will eventually be decided by force, not diplomacy.