EUROPE's DEATH SPIRAL /Patrick Henningsen & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Patrick Henningsen argues that events now underway ensure a major political defeat for NATO and Europe, which has become a political—not military—organization. Europe’s attempt to abandon Russian energy has backfired, leaving it dependent on far more expensive U.S. LNG, harming European industry, especially Germany. EU leaders like Ursula von der Leyen frame this as “energy independence,” but critics call it deceptive, noting Europe is paying more for worse outcomes while corruption scandals grow inside EU institutions.

The U.S., not Russia, is accused of weaponizing energy—Nord Stream being the prime example—and using energy leverage to shape European politics. This has contributed to Europe’s de-industrialization and economic decline. The speaker predicts a future backlash if populist movements in Europe begin highlighting how U.S. policy under Biden pushed Europe into this crisis.

They argue Trump could politically demolish Biden by detailing how Biden broke promises to Russia (e.g., about missiles in Ukraine) and signaled intent to end Nord Stream. But Trump lacks knowledgeable advisors and strong diplomatic infrastructure. Without real strategists, his envoys in Moscow are ineffective.

The discussion then shifts to Ukraine: Zelensky’s close advisors Yermak and others have fled or resigned amid corruption investigations. Yermak, considered Zelensky’s “brain,” controlled messaging and kept Zelensky in an information bubble. With Yermak gone, Zelensky may now confront battlefield realities more directly. Yermak also holds sensitive kompromat involving Biden and former Ukrainian president Poroshenko, which has given him political protection. His removal therefore signals deep instability within Kyiv’s leadership at the same moment Ukraine’s front lines are collapsing and Western support shows signs of wavering.