Prof. John Mearsheimer: Ukraine is Doomed

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John Mearsheimer argues that Ukraine’s situation is dire and likely unsustainable. Rushing untrained troops into combat is described as extremely irresponsible and largely futile, highlighting Ukraine’s severe manpower shortages. Militarily, Russia is said to now hold decisive advantages in drones, artillery, and precision-guided bombs, while Ukraine faces shortages of money, manpower, and firepower.

The balance of the war, in this view, overwhelmingly favors Russia. European leaders like Emmanuel Macron are criticized for offering vague optimism about “just and sustainable peace,” undefined “cards to play,” and claims that Russia’s economy is collapsing—claims the speaker says are unsupported. Meanwhile, the United States, especially under Trump, is portrayed as pulling back, shifting responsibility and costs to Europe, which lacks the economic and military capacity to replace U.S. support.

European economies are described as weaker than in 2022, burdened by debt and unable to fund Ukraine at the necessary scale—hence talk of seizing Russian assets, which the speaker calls a sign of desperation and a dangerous precedent. If the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine together could not defeat Russia before, the speaker argues, Europe alone certainly cannot now.

The discussion frames current transatlantic tensions as a growing political “war of words” between Trump and European leaders. Looking ahead, the speaker predicts Ukraine will eventually lose the war, resulting in a devastating defeat for NATO. A “blame game” is already forming, with Europeans likely to fault Trump for withdrawing support, while Trump positions the war as Biden’s responsibility and emphasizes Europe’s primary role.

Finally, calls from Western figures for strong security guarantees—including potential U.S. forces in Ukraine—are dismissed as unrealistic. The overall conclusion is that many Western elites privately recognize Ukraine’s likely defeat and are now maneuvering to avoid being blamed for the outcome.