Prof John Mearsheimer: Element of DESPERATION for PUTIN

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Claims that a Russia–Ukraine peace deal is “90% ready” are dismissed as propaganda and “Kabuki theater.” According to Professor John Mearsheimer, there is no meaningful progress toward peace, because the two sides remain fundamentally far apart on non-negotiable issues.

Russia’s position—unchanged since June 2024—demands:

Ukrainian neutrality and no NATO membership

No U.S. or NATO security guarantees (Article 5–style guarantees are unacceptable)

Ukrainian withdrawal from all four annexed regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia)

Broader demilitarization and political conditions

Western claims that “only territory remains” or that Ukraine merely needs to give up Donbas are described as misleading. For Russia, the core issue is NATO, not just land. Any U.S.–Ukraine bilateral security guarantee is seen by Moscow as NATO in disguise and therefore a deal-breaker.

Zelensky’s assertions that Ukraine is “100% aligned” with the U.S. on security guarantees are not backed by Washington, whose silence suggests the opposite. U.S. policy, according to Mearsheimer, is to gradually disengage, shift the burden to Europe, and pivot strategic focus toward East Asia, not deepen commitments in Ukraine.

Russia’s references to earlier talks (Istanbul 2022) reflect its insistence on a “common” security guarantee, meaning Russia would have veto power—something Ukraine rejects outright.

Bottom line:

No real negotiations are happening

Diplomatic signaling is mainly public relations

The war is likely to be decided on the battlefield

Russia keeps the diplomatic door rhetorically open to appear reasonable, especially to the U.S., but expects no acceptable deal under current conditions