Pandemic Global Update

Global

World Health Organization, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

Critical juncture, tough times ahead for the countries in the Northern Hemisphere

The next few months are going to be very tough and some countries are on a dangerous track

an exponential increase in cases in many nations

Leading to hospital increases

Governments need to act x 5

1. Assess current situation in your country, identify cases and clusters, conduct honest analysis

2. Make necessary adjustments to health facilities

3. Be clear and honest with people

4. Put systems in place to make it easier to comply, assist individuals and groups

5. Share good practice, speak to people with specific instructions, isolate all cases and quarantine contacts, its never too late to act

Oxygen issues / project

South Sudan, Somalia, Chad

Solar power to run oxygen concentrators

Maria Van Kerkhove

European cities, the capacity for ICU is going to be reached in the coming weeks

United States

dark winter (Mr. Biden)" due to the second wave

39 states increased cases over past 2 weeks

Hospitalizations

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson

AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, resume phase 3 clinical trials

Two men, both have pledged free vaccination for all

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) University of Washington (22nd October)

Fall/winter surge has begun, cases and deaths

Several weeks behind the massive surge in Europe

Surge will intensify in November and December, reaching a peak in January

Many states, enormous pressure on hospital capacity

Re-impose some social distancing mandates

Expand mask use

Current situation

Cases and deaths up

Deaths, 680 per day last week, now 710

Effective R, over 1 in many Northern states

Also in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, Mississippi and Alabama

Trends in key drivers of transmission (mobility, mask use, testing, and seasonality)

Largely unchanged over the last week

Mobility remains constant at the national level

Only California and Hawaii have levels that are less than 35% of the pre-COVID-19 baseline

Approximately two-thirds, wearing a mask outside the home

Lowest mask use rates are in Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota

Projections

Daily deaths to reach nearly 2,200 a day in mid-January

Cumulative deaths by February 1, 386,000

Assumes re-imposition of social distancing mandates when the daily death rate reaches 8

per million

Expanding mask use to 95% ....

the level seen in Singapore

can greatly delay the imposition of mandates and save

63,000 lives

UK

ONS

Deaths, England and Wales, week ending 9 October 2020 (Week 41)

Deaths registered was 1.5% (143 deaths) above the five-year average

The number would have to get to 1,200 deaths above the norm to be classified as "excess" above random expected variations

Deaths from coronavirus, flu and pneumonia are currently running at 1,621

There would usually be around 1,600 weekly deaths from flu and pneumonia

Therefore, respiratory deaths at a normal level

Essentially no community flu just now

Death certificates, 438 (4.4%) mentioned novel coronavirus (COVID-19)

COVID deaths up by 117 since last week when it was 3.2% of all deaths

UK as a whole, deaths

Total deaths = 11,359, which was 197 deaths higher than the five-year average but 85 fewer than Week 40

Cases, 10th to 16th October 2020

Infections continue to increase, England and Wales

Community infections (England), 433,300

One in 130 people

Increased infection rates in all age groups

Highest in older teenagers and young adults.

North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, North East

Wales

Community infections, 16,700

One in 180

Northern Ireland

One in 100 people

Scotland (ONS, 3 to 16 October 2020)

One in 180 people

Cases now

UK hospitalisations

Wales

Gloucestershire police patrols

Greece

Athens, it is now mandatory for people to wear masks outdoors

Curfew has been placed from 12.30 am - 5 am

Kozani and Kastoria, under lockdown

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