Interview on UK

Interview on the latest UK numbers on LBC. The point is that the rate of increase is decreasing, if we carry on decreasing the rate of increase, soon we will have no increase in new cases. When there is no increase R will be zero. After this R will fall below 1 and so the new cases will reduce. BUT, we must continue the current measures to continue the reduction in the rate of increase.

As cases have increased in overall numbers, hospitalisations and deaths will inevitably follow. People dying today contracted the infection a month ago. This means deaths will continue to increase, but should reach a peak in late November, then start to drop. This is as long as the rate of increasing cases continues to decrease.

Cases, + 22,885 = 917,575

Cases, + 43,936

Current infections, 541,802

Current new cases, much less than March, 100,000 – 200,000 per day

October 20th to 27th cases increase of 7.3% on the week

October 9th to 16th cases up by 14%

September, doubling every 7 to 8 days

Increase halving every week

Increase hoped for next week, 3.5%

Week after that 1.75%

One month, hopefully no increase at all

Then R = less than 1

Hands, face, space, ventilation, vitamin D, less travel

Hospitalised, + 1, 152 = 9,199

Hospitalised, 12th April, 19, 849

Ventilator beds, = 852

Deaths, + 367 = 54,365

Deaths, up 50% on last week

Deaths, (certificated) + 761 (past week) = 58,925

Tests, + 261, 855 = 29, 994, 301