Soybean Rally Continues on NEW Cash Injections

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🌱📈 Soybean & Corn Contracts Surge | Brazil’s Dry Spell, Russian Crop Struggles, and Hurricane Helene

Hey everyone! 👋 Today, we’re covering the latest rally in soybean and corn futures, ongoing droughts impacting Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine's crops, and the strengthening Hurricane Helene. Plus, we’ll discuss shifts in Argentine farming preferences and the recent changes in US ethanol production. Let’s jump right in! 🚀👇

🌾 Soybean & Corn Futures Rally

The Nov24 soybean contract posted its best close since late July, rising 11 cents to close near $10.54 per bushel on Wednesday. Here’s what’s driving the rally:

The US crop situation appears mostly "known," but there could be surprises in Monday’s USDA Grain Stocks report.

China's stimulus and ongoing dry conditions in Brazil are also lending support to soybean prices.

The Dec24 corn contract followed suit, closing at its best level since late July, with news of additional Chinese stimulus on the horizon.

☀️ Brazil Faces Continued Dryness

Brazil's soybean country remains drier than normal. Both the Euro and GFS models predict rain in early October, but amounts will likely stay below normal over the next two weeks. Here’s the latest:

Reuters reported that Brazil's drought has "halted" grain transportation through the Madeira River, a key route linking Mato Grosso to vital ports.

Last year, Brazil’s "North Arc" region accounted for 43% of the country's corn exports and 34% of soybean exports.

🌾 Drought Affects Russian & Ukrainian Winter Wheat Crops

Drought is taking a toll on winter wheat planting in Russia:

Winter wheat acres have fallen to their lowest level since 2013, with only 20.5 million acres planted so far, down nearly 11% from last year.

Key producing regions received less than 20% of normal rainfall in the past month.

Ukraine is also feeling the strain:

Winter wheat planting in Ukraine has reached 2.2 million acres, marking a 14% decline from last year.

🌪️ Hurricane Helene Targets Florida's Gulf Coast

Hurricane Helene is intensifying and could become a Category 3 or 4 storm before landfall later today:

Expected to bring winds of 111 mph+, storm surges up to 18 feet, and 12 inches of rain.

Power outages could stretch from southern Florida to southeast Kentucky.

The southern and eastern Corn Belt regions might receive up to 5 inches of rainfall from this storm.

🇦🇷 Argentina's Shift to Soybeans Over Corn

Argentine farmers are favoring soybeans this season due to profitability concerns and potential disease risks:

Soybean crop is projected to increase by 3% to 52mmt, while the corn crop is expected to decline by 5% to 47mmt.

The shift is driven by higher profitability for soybeans and concerns over leafhopper-induced stunt disease, which severely impacted last year’s corn crop.

Meanwhile, Argentina’s wheat crop estimate has been raised by 3% to 18.6mmt.

🛢️ US Ethanol Production Declines

US ethanol production took a dip last week:

Output fell to 994,000 barrels per day, down 5.2% on the week but still +1.4% vs. the same week last year.

Ethanol stocks were reported at 23.5 million barrels, down 1.1% from the previous week but up 8.5% compared to last year.

Despite the drop, implied gasoline demand rose 4.9% week-over-week and 9.5% compared to last year.

🚜 USDA Reports Flash Sale of Corn

The USDA reported a flash sale of 180,000mt (7 million bushels) of corn to Mexico for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Current US corn export commitments are now the fifth-best in the last ten years. 🌽

👇 Stay Informed!

Make sure to subscribe for more updates on global ag markets, weather impacts, and trade news. Share your thoughts in the comments—will the dry conditions in Brazil and Russia continue to support US crop prices? 💬

#SoybeanRally #CornMarket #BrazilDrought #HurricaneHelene #ArgentinaCrops #EthanolProduction #AgNews