Grain Markets and Other Stuff
@grainmarketsandotherstuff·35K subscribers·1.5K videos
52 Million Bushels of Corn: Big Deal?? + Dockworker Strike
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October 1, 2024
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🌽 Corn Futures Rally
Corn futures saw a boost on Monday following a friendly USDA report, which pegged September 1st US corn stocks at 1.76 billion bushels. This figure is 52 million bushels below the USDA's previous estimate due to increased feed and residual usage. The report also confirmed that there were no major surprises in the US wheat production estimates.
📦 Dockworkers Strike on the East and Gulf Coasts
Dockworkers from the International Longshoremen's Association began a strike overnight after failing to reach an agreement with the US Maritime Alliance. This strike is estimated to cost the US economy $540 million per day and will impact container shipments from 36 ports from Maine to Texas. The strike could significantly affect grain exports, with containers accounting for about 10% of these shipments.
🌱 Brazilian Soybean Planting Lags
Brazil's soybean planting is lagging, with only 2% of the expected area planted as of last Thursday, compared to 5.2% during the same week last year. Hot and dry conditions are a significant factor in the slow planting progress. As for corn, 30% of the projected acres for Brazil's first corn crop have been planted.
🇨🇳 Boost for Chinese Corn Futures
Chinese corn futures surged 1.9% on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, marking the largest one-day gain since January. Recent stimulus measures in China, including lower interest rates and eased home purchase restrictions, have boosted investor confidence. Additionally, reduced grain imports are expected to drive corn futures higher as the Chinese government advises buyers to cut purchases.
🌾 US Harvest Ahead of Schedule
The US corn harvest is progressing well, with 21% harvested nationally compared to 14% last week and 18% on average. States like Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas have already harvested over 50% of their crops. Soybeans are also ahead, with 26% harvested. However, corn conditions slipped slightly to 64% rated as good to excellent.
🌱 Winter Wheat Planting Ongoing
US winter wheat planting is currently 39% complete, ahead of last week’s 25% and in line with the average of 38%. States like Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Washington have planted over 50% of their crops.
📈 Export Shipments Update
US corn shipments remained strong, with 1.1 million metric tons (45 million bushels) inspected for export, reflecting a 70% increase from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were reported at 675,749 metric tons (25 million bushels), up 36% from the prior week, while wheat shipments totaled 536,929 metric tons (20 million bushels), a 25% increase year-over-year.
🥡 Flash Sale of Soybeans
USDA reported a flash sale of 116,000 metric tons (4 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year, although current soybean export commitments remain among the lowest in the last decade.
Stay tuned for more updates as the week progresses! 🌾📊
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