Big Farm Aid Next?? $12B Rumor and Why Farmers Still Support Trump

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💰 Farm Aid Update

The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends — reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.

This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.

Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.

📊 Charts below.

🏭 ADM Outlook Cut

ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.

CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules — both delayed by the shutdown.

ADM Q3 profit fell ~19%.

📉 ADM stock chart below.

💵 King Dollar Flexes

Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher — four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe-havens bid.

📈 USD index + USD/BRL charts below.

🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds

Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.

Livestock still outshining crops — cattle profits remain massive.

58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.

Importantly — this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.

📊 Barometer graphics below.

🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed

Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.

Screwworm containment improving, but USDA still cautious — price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.

📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates

S&P holding steady:

🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu

🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu

USDA updates November 14 — yesterday’s video with Pete explains why this dataset is messy headed into WASDE.