Soybean Prices TANK Because China Isn't Buying Enough + SCOTUS/Tariffs

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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!

Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.

🌾 Soybean Market Drop

Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉

🇨🇳 China Trade Update

COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.

⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs

The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.

🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress

Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas — see CropProphet maps below.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor

Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.

Corn: 30%

Soybeans: 32%

Winter Wheat: 38%

Spring Wheat: 17%

Cattle: 26%

See the USDA drought PDF linked below.

💼 Jobs & Markets

Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month — triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, S&P 500 –1.1%, and Dow –0.8%. The 10-yr yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.

(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)