Farmers Already Sold!! Trump Admin is TOO SLOW with Trade, Aid, etc.

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🇺🇸 Farm Aid Update

The Trump administration is expected to announce additional farmer assistance in early December. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the aid is likely coming during the first week of the month. Details remain limited. The package was originally planned for this fall but delayed by the government shutdown.

Farmers continue to face pressure from inflation, policy uncertainty, and trade-related disruptions. Even with the uptick in Chinese soybean buying, the administration believes more support is necessary heading into next planting season.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Purchases

USDA reported another flash sale to China on Wednesday:

• 330,000mt (≈12 million bushels) sold

• China has now purchased 1.4mmt (≈50 million bushels) in recent weeks

There are 29 business days left before Jan 1. To hit the 12mmt target the White House outlined, China would need to average 367,103mt (13.5 million bu) per day.

Rumors point to 4–5 additional cargoes sold yesterday that may show up in today’s reporting.

📊 See updated China Soybean Purchase Tracker below.

🌱 2026 Acreage Outlook (S&P Global)

S&P Global’s monthly survey points to:

• Corn acres down to 95 million (–3.8%)

• Soybean acres up to 84.5 million (+4%)

• All wheat acres down to 44 million (–2.9%)

📈 See 2026 corn/soybean ratio chart below + budget screenshot from today’s premium video with Chris Barron.

🛢️ Biofuel Credit Cuts May Be Delayed

The administration is weighing a 1–2 year delay in cutting biofuel import credits.

• Cuts were scheduled for Jan 1

• Would have reduced RIN credits earned by imported biofuels/inputs

• Refiners warn cuts could tighten fuel supplies and raise prices

EPA is reviewing comments and will finalize rules in the coming months.

Soybean oil futures dropped more than 2% on the headline.

🍺 Ethanol Production & Margins

US ethanol output increased to 1.09M barrels/day last week (+1.5% WoW).

Stocks climbed to 22.31M barrels, slightly higher on the week and year.

Margins across the Corn Belt remain positive, ranging from +5 to +35 cents depending on plant and input mix.

📊 See updated ethanol charts below.

📉 CFTC Commitment of Traders

CFTC released its first COT data since reopening:

• Corn: Funds sold 32k → net short now 129k

• Soybeans: Funds sold 7k → net short now 32k

• SRW Wheat: Funds bought 1k → net short trimmed to 96k

CFTC expects to be fully current again by late January.