Farm Financial Stress/Bankruptcies Build + China Buys MORE Soybeans

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🌦️ Weather & Drought Update

Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.

• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme

• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK

US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%

See USDA PDF in description.

💰 Farm Financial Stress

Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.

• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year

• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12

• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)

Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.

📊 Charts below

🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales

Flash Sales Thursday:

• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)

• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)

• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY

📊 China Tracker below

Brazil & Argentina Shipments:

• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)

• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)

• U.S. → 0mt

China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.

📦 Export Sales Snapshot

Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer

Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer

Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer

📊 Charts below

🐂 Cattle Markets

Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.

• Trump is pushing lower beef prices

• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected bullish

• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef — likely increases imports & pressures prices further