"Corn Piles in the Parking Lot" - Storage Crunch Hits Wisconsin and Elsewhere

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🌽 Record Wisconsin Corn Crop + Storage Crunch

Wisconsin is harvesting a record corn crop, with many farmers reporting yields 20–30 bushels above previous highs.

Grain elevators across the state are full or overflowing, forcing coops to pile millions of bushels outside on the ground.

United Cooperative near Appleton is moving grain out by rail as fast as possible.

Some farmers are turning to grain bagging because space is so tight.

Slow soybean sales are tying up even more storage as producers wait for better prices.

USDA pegs Wisconsin’s 2025 state yield at a record 183 bpa.

Other states — Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, South Dakota — also posted record yields.

Western Corn Belt basis is weak, while basis in many eastern areas is stronger than normal.

📊 See US corn production & acreage charts below.

🇧🇷 Brazil Soybean Planting Update

Consulting group Patria Agronegocios estimates Brazil’s soybean planting at 80% complete vs 83% last year.

Still ahead of the 75% five-year average.

Irregular rainfall has caused localized delays and could affect yields.

Mato Grosso is nearly done — about 98% planted.

🌎 See CropProphet maps below + US/Brazil soybean production chart.

📉 CFTC COT Report: First Release After Shutdown

For week ending Sept 30:

Funds sold 32k corn, expanding the net short to 129k.

Funds sold 7k soybeans, net short now 32k.

Funds bought 1k SRW wheat, net short trimmed to 96k.

CFTC expects to be fully current by late January.

Private estimates for Friday:

Corn: ~110k short

Soybeans: ~120k long

SRW Wheat: ~60k short

📉 See Fund Tracker visuals below.

🐂 Cattle on Feed Report — Bullish Across the Board

As of Nov 1: 11.7M head, down 2% YoY — in line with expectations.

Placements: 2.04M head → down 10% and the lowest since 1996 for October.

Marketings: 1.7M head → down 8%, matching expectations.

Market should view this as bullish, though volatility could mute reaction.

Heifer retention still shows no major herd rebuilding.

🐄 See COF charts below.

🏭 Tyson Closing Major Nebraska Beef Plant

Tyson will close one of its largest beef plants in Lexington, NE — processing 5,000 head/day.

Roughly 3,000 jobs impacted.

Amarillo, TX plant will shrink from two shifts to one, affecting ~1,700 workers.

Changes take effect by end of January.

Tyson reported $2B higher cattle costs in FY2025 vs prior year.

💵 Macroeconomy: Shutdown Cost + Bessent Outlook

The government shutdown cost the US economy $11B.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains optimistic about 2026 growth.

Says easing interest rates and tax cuts will help, and doesn’t see the broader economy at risk.

Shutdown expected to cut Q4 growth in half → now 1.5%–2% expected.