U.S Election Head-to-Head | Who Will Win? | Oxford Union Web Series
December 11, 2020
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50:06Now PlayingU.S Election Head-to-Head | Who Will Win? | Oxford Union Web Series
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In 2016, polls and pundits were widely criticised for failing to predict the victory of Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Among the handful to correctly predict a Trump victory were Lichtman and Norpoth. Both have each correctly predicted the outcome of the majority of presidential elections in recent history, yet, this year, they disagree. On the day of the US election, we bring them together to debate who will win.
PREDICTION: TRUMP
Prof. Helmut Norpoth
Electoral behaviour expert and Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University. His statistics-based Primary Model has correctly predicted five of the last six US presidential elections.
PREDICTION: BIDEN
Prof. Allan Lichtman
History Professor at American University and pollster responsible for developing the Thirteen Keys model, a question-based approach that has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential race since 1984.
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