John Mearsheimer: PUTIN WILL NOT LOSE at Alaska Summit

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The U.S. and European leaders, including Germany’s Merz and France’s Macron, insist that Ukraine must be part of any talks. They want negotiations to begin with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, after which political and territorial issues could be discussed. They categorically reject recognizing Russia’s control over any occupied Ukrainian territory and refuse to consider territorial swaps or “land-for-peace” arrangements. Their long-term aim is to restore Ukraine’s pre-2022 borders.

Russia’s stance is the mirror opposite. Moscow refuses to consider a ceasefire unless Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over all four annexed regions — Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson — in their full administrative boundaries. This demand is locked into Russia’s constitution, meaning no government could legally agree to give up those territories. Russia views Ukraine’s current government as illegitimate in those regions and says direct talks with the U.S. are sufficient. In Moscow’s view, the political status of the territories must be settled first, and only then can fighting stop.

These positions don’t just differ — they directly contradict each other. One side says “stop the war, then negotiate borders,” the other says “agree on borders, then stop the war.” That sequencing conflict alone makes any diplomatic breakthrough at the Alaska summit almost impossible.