John Mearsheimer: Trump EU Leaders & Zelensky Summit - Road to Nowhere

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Ahead of Trump’s Alaska meeting with Putin, he held a video teleconference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders, aiming to present a united Western front.

Early hopes included possible progress toward a ceasefire or even an end to the Ukraine war.

In the days leading up to the call, however, expectations fell — U.S. officials reframed the summit as primarily a “listening session” for Trump to hear Putin’s position, with no groundwork for a deal.

Mearsheimer’s assessment

John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago international relations scholar, says the summit is not the product of careful negotiation or a near-final agreement.

Instead, Trump arranged it to avoid implementing secondary sanctions on Russia that were due on August 8 — a move he realized he didn’t want to make.

Trump initially set a 50-day sanctions deadline, later shortened to 10 days, but then bypassed it. To dodge the sanctions commitment, he sent an emissary (Whitco) to Moscow to request a meeting with Putin.

Western narratives claiming Putin “desperately wanted” the meeting are false; Mearsheimer says Trump was the one pressing for it.

The sanctions angle

Trump’s reluctance to hit Russia with secondary sanctions stems from limited viable targets.

India and China are the main importers of Russian oil.

China is untouchable due to economic leverage over the U.S.

India is easier to target, so Trump announced a 25% tariff on India related to Russian oil sales — but India insists it will keep buying from Russia, so the move won’t hurt Moscow.

Mearsheimer calls secondary sanctions “not a meaningful threat” against Russia.

Why Putin agreed to meet

Putin knows no agreement will result but benefits from:

Portraying himself as a reasonable statesman willing to engage.

Stating Russian demands directly to Trump — demands Mearsheimer says Trump still may not fully grasp.

Gaining domestic and international prestige by visiting the U.S.

Russia’s demands, reiterated since June 2024, include full control of all four annexed territories under their administrative borders — non-negotiable under Russia’s constitution.

European and Ukrainian positions

German Chancellor Merz restated Europe’s position:

Ukraine must be at the table for any talks.

Negotiations must start with an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

No legal recognition of Russian-occupied territory.

Macron echoed these points and claimed Trump agreed — contradicting Russia’s position.

Moscow responded via its foreign ministry that there will be no territorial swaps or withdrawal from any annexed areas.

Why nothing will change

Positions are fundamentally incompatible:

West: ceasefire first, no territorial concessions.

Russia: no ceasefire without recognition of its annexations.

Mearsheimer says these same Western arguments have been repeated for months with no movement, and the war will be “settled on the battlefield.”

Battlefield reality

Russia currently holds the advantage, with Ukrainian forces struggling.

This strengthens Putin’s negotiating hand ahead of the summit.

Mearsheimer warns that when leaders meet Friday, the worsening battlefield situation for Ukraine could further tilt dynamics in Russia’s favor.

Likely outcome of the Alaska meeting

Mearsheimer: Trump will avoid imposing the Aug. 8 sanctions, but there will be no Ukraine settlement or major policy breakthrough.

Politically, Trump may take some damage — his early “honeymoon period” is over, and he has failed so far to deliver on his promise to quickly end the war.