It's Happening: World Power Shifts /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Trump’s tariff strategy is straining relations not just with rivals but also with close U.S. allies like Japan, South Korea, and the EU. These countries have reluctantly agreed to invest in the U.S. to avoid tariffs, but many are likely to “slow roll” compliance, hoping his administration ends so they can negotiate better terms later.

This coercive approach risks alienating allies and pushing them to look toward alternatives like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The broader issue is that the U.S., since the Cold War’s end, pursued policies to keep Russia and China down—expanding NATO near Russia and militarily containing China. Instead of preventing rivalry, this has fueled resistance and closer cooperation among them.

Trump has doubled down with tariffs, framing them as vital to U.S. strength. He even claimed they would bring $15 trillion in investment, warning that if courts strike them down, America could “become a third-world nation.” Analysts, including Fox News, have debunked these numbers, showing tariff revenues are closer to $500 billion annually with a $2–2.8 trillion projection over a decade—far from Trump’s claim.

A federal appeals court has already ruled his tariffs unconstitutional since only Congress can impose them, and the Supreme Court is likely to uphold that ruling. If so, trade would simply return to pre-tariff norms, not collapse.

Key point: Trump’s exaggerated rhetoric and hardline tariff policies are alienating allies, weakening U.S. credibility, and driving more countries to consider aligning with non-Western blocs—undermining decades of U.S. strategy.