Big Win or Empty Promise? Japan's $8bil Deal with US Ag

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🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵 Trump–Japan Trade Deal

Trump signed a deal with Japan that slaps a 15% tariff on Japanese imports.

Tokyo agreed to a $550B U.S. investment fund — Trump says he can use it “however he wants,” but no details yet.

Japan also pledged $8B annually in U.S. ag purchases (corn, soybeans).

For comparison: the 2020 U.S.–China “Phase One” deal had ~$40B/year in ag buys.

🌽🌱 Ag Market Impact

Japan bought 512M bushels of U.S. corn in the 24/25 marketing year — 2nd only to Mexico.

Last season: $2.8B corn and $998M soybeans from the U.S.

This new pledge could be a major boost for U.S. farmers.

📉 StoneX Crop Outlook

Corn yield cut to 186.9 bpa (down from 188.1), but acreage boost lifts production to 16.58B bu.

Soybean yield trimmed to 53.2 bpa with production lowered to 4.26B bu.

Ongoing survey methodology dates back to 1993.

🌦️ USDA Drought Update

Corn Belt drought expands slightly: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, plus parts of Iowa & Minnesota.

Current drought coverage: Corn 9%, Soybeans 16%, Winter Wheat 34%, Spring Wheat 13%, Cattle 18%.

Some relief in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota with scattered showers.

🛢️🌱 Biofuels & Policy Shift

U.S. biodiesel imports down 94%; renewable diesel imports down 85% (lowest since 2012).

Cause: the new 45Z tax credit only applies to domestic biofuels (replacing the old $1/gal blender’s credit).

Positive for U.S. soybean oil & ethanol — less foreign competition ahead.

📢 Stay Informed

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