Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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Weekend Freeze Event + ZERO China Soybean Purchases
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September 8, 2025
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🌽🌱 Welcome back! Today we’re breaking down weekend weather risks, fresh export sales, and market reaction.
❄️ Weekend Freeze Event
Some US corn and soybean areas saw freezing temps early Sunday morning across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and western Nebraska. The extent of crop damage is still unclear, but markets are shrugging it off with lackluster trade to start the week. See maps below, and please share any local details you have — past/observed weather info is much harder to pin down than forecasts!
🚢 Export Sales Update
USDA reported two Friday flash sales: 327,650mt (12mil bu) of soybeans to unknown destinations for 25/26 delivery.
Accumulated sales are down 32% YoY, with “Unknown” now 41% of all new-crop soybean export sales.
China still hasn’t booked a single bushel for 25/26. While some “Unknown” could be China, weak Northern Plains basis suggests no major PNW program yet.
New crop corn sales hit 2.1mmt (83mil bu), near the high end of expectations. Mexico was the top buyer.
Soybean sales (818,500mt) were down 40% WoW; wheat sales (313,000mt) missed expectations, with Nigeria as the top buyer. See charts below.
🌾 Crop Estimates
S&P Global pegs yields at 189.1bpa for corn (16.77bbu) and 53.8bpa for soybeans (4.31bbu) — record-large crops. These numbers are slightly above USDA’s latest estimates, but higher than StoneX’s more cautious outlook. USDA updates its official estimates this Friday.
📊 Fund Positioning
CFTC data shows:
Funds trimmed corn shorts again, buying 16k contracts. Net short now 95k, smallest since May.
Funds sold 8k soybean contracts and 417 SRW wheat contracts.
💼 Macro Headlines
US job growth slowed in August with just +22,000 jobs (vs. 75k expected). Unemployment ticked up to 4.3%, highest since 2021. June was revised to a loss of 13k jobs — first monthly decline since 2020. Analysts see this soft labor market reinforcing expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.
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