China Buys 87% of Soybean Target + Trump vs. Powell

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🌽 USDA Reports Preview (Crop Production, WASDE & Grain Stocks)

USDA will release its monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports on Monday, along with the quarterly Grain Stocks report.

• Analysts expect a notable decline in US corn production and yield, though both would still be record large

• Soybean production and yield are forecast to slip modestly

• US ending stocks for corn and wheat are expected to edge lower

• Soybean ending stocks are projected to increase slightly

• Corn exports are forecast at record highs

• Soybean exports are expected to decline amid slow sales to China

• World ending stocks are expected to remain largely unchanged

👉 See pre-report estimates below

🇨🇳 China Buys More US Soybeans

China purchased at least 10 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday for April–May shipment.

• At least eight cargoes will ship from the US Gulf

• The remainder will ship from the PNW

• The deal follows another 10-cargo purchase earlier in the week by Sinograin

• Several smaller flash sales were also reported last week

Despite the recent buying, traders remain uncertain about if and when the soybeans will ultimately ship.

🚢 USDA Flash Sale Update

USDA reported a flash sale of 198,000mt (7 mil bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2025/26 marketing year.

• Accumulated US soybean sales are down 29% vs. last year

👉 See China Soybean Purchase Tracker below

🇧🇷 Brazilian Soybean Harvest Begins

Brazil’s soybean harvest is underway and running ahead of normal.

• 0.53% harvested vs. a five-year average of 0.39%

• Only 0.05% was harvested at this time last year

• Warm, dry weather is expected to persist

Both Conab and USDA are projecting a record Brazilian soybean crop.

👉 See maps from CropProphet below

📊 CFTC Fund Positioning

For the week ending January 6:

• Funds were net buyers of corn

• Net sellers of soybeans (continuing a large liquidation trend)

• Net sellers of SRW wheat

👉 See Fund Tracker charts below

💳 Trump Calls for Credit Card Rate Cap

President Trump is calling for a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, down from current rates near 20%.

• Banks warn the move could reduce credit availability

• Riskier borrowers could face credit line cuts, higher fees, or larger minimum payments

• Proposal could take effect as early as January 20

Shares of some credit card companies were lower this morning, with Capital One down about 2.5%.