Without US Corn Growers, the World Has a Problem

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🌽 Argentina Corn Crop Update

Argentina’s corn crop is shaping up to be record large. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its estimate to 62 mmt, well above the prior record of 51.5 mmt set in the 2023/24 season. The increase reflects more planted acres than expected. Despite recent hot and dry conditions, crop stress has been limited, and rainfall is forecast for key growing areas.

For comparison, the USDA is currently projecting Argentina’s corn crop at 53 mmt.

➡️ See Top 10 Corn Producer chart below.

📈 Corn & Soybean Futures

Corn and soybean futures finished higher on Wednesday, bouncing from oversold levels.

March corn settled near $4.22

March soybeans closed around $10.43

The gains were largely technical after futures fell to their lowest levels since October earlier this week following Monday’s bearish USDA report.

➡️ See price charts below.

🔥 US Ethanol Production

US ethanol production surged to a new all-time high last week. Output jumped to 1.2 million barrels per day, crushing the prior record set in December. Ethanol stocks also climbed to a record weekly high of 24.47 million barrels.

According to Reuters data, ethanol margins remain solid across the Corn Belt, running 10 to 40 cents positive based on spot corn, DDGs, and input prices. Margins improved following Monday’s sharp selloff in corn futures.

➡️ See ethanol charts below.

🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports

China imported a record 111.8 mmt of soybeans in 2025, topping the prior record set in 2024. Imports rose 6.5% year over year as buyers front-loaded shipments from Brazil and Argentina amid trade war uncertainty.

China largely avoided US soybeans during the year due to President Trump’s tariffs, but purchases resumed after the October trade truce. Traders estimate China has already bought nearly 10 mmt of the 12 mmt it committed to under the agreement.

➡️ See China import & Brazil export chart below.

🚢 USDA Flash Sales

The USDA reported multiple flash sales on Wednesday:

136,000 mt of corn sold to South Korea

334,000 mt of soybeans sold to China

Both were for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

🥈 Silver & Gold Hit Records

Silver prices exploded to a new record high, surging more than 5% and breaking above $90 per ounce for the first time. The rally was fueled by renewed attacks on the Federal Reserve, expectations for additional rate cuts, and rising geopolitical tensions. Silver is now up nearly 30% year-to-date and almost triple where it traded a year ago.

Gold also hit record highs, with prices up more than 70% over the past year.

➡️ See precious metals charts below.