Biofuel Lobbies BEG for Year-Round E15 Ethanol - Silver Bullet for Corn Market??

Joe's Premium Subscription

Apple Podcasts

🌽 Ethanol & E15 Push

The Renewable Fuels Association is calling for year-round, nationwide sales of E15 following Monday’s bearish USDA report. The group says allowing E15 nationwide could eventually create demand for more than 2 billion bushels of corn and sorghum.

The RFA is urging Congress to pass the Ethanol for America Act, finalize Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements, limit small refinery exemptions, and reallocate any waived volumes.

Despite the push, year-round E15 is unlikely to materially boost ethanol demand in the near term:

Infrastructure: Many stations would need upgraded tanks, pumps, gaskets, and EPA sign-offs

Consumer behavior: Most drivers don’t know what E15 is and are hesitant to buy it

Production capacity: US ethanol production is already near capacity

An E15 mandate would be the fastest way to meaningfully increase corn demand—but that would require new plants, new infrastructure, and billions of dollars.

🚜 Trade Policy Risk: USMCA

President Trump said this week that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement is now “irrelevant” and no longer benefits the US. The agreement is up for review this year, with renewal requiring all three countries to agree by July 1.

Mexico has been the largest buyer of US corn in recent years. Any disruption to USMCA would be a major risk to corn exports. See chart below.

🥩 Beef Prices Hit New Records

Ground beef prices averaged $6.82/lb in December, up 16% year over year. Steak prices averaged $12.51/lb, up 18%.

Beef prices remain a major driver of higher food costs and are expected to keep rising into 2026 due to historically low US cattle inventories and new dietary guidelines encouraging higher animal-protein consumption. See beef charts below.

🌱 Soybean Flash Sales

USDA reported multiple soybean flash sales on Tuesday:

168,000 mt to China

152,404 mt to Mexico

Both are for delivery during the 2025/26 marketing year.

📊 Inflation Update

December CPI showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, unchanged from November and in line with expectations. Food prices jumped 0.7% month over month, the largest increase since October 2022.

Despite tariff concerns, inflation remains relatively stable, and the report is unlikely to change the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. See CPI chart below.

🌎 Largest US Landowner

The owner of the LA Rams and Denver Nuggets is now the largest landowner in the US. Stan Kroenke recently purchased 1 million acres in New Mexico, bringing his total US landholdings to over 2.7 million acres.

Other top landowners include:

Emmerson Family: ~2.5 million acres

John Malone: ~2.2 million acres

Ted Turner: ~2.0 million acres

Jeff Bezos: ~462,000 acres

Bill Gates: ~275,000 acres

Not thrilled about Kroenke this week… especially with the Rams heading to Soldier Field to face my beloved Chicago Bears 🐻😤