Some New Farm Aid Details Emerge, DOJ Input Cost Investigation Still MIA

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🚜 Farm Aid & Government Funding

Senate Republicans are pushing for an additional farm aid package, potentially totaling up to $15 billion (not yet confirmed).

The proposal includes:

Additional bridge payments

Support for specialty crop producers

Higher farm ownership and operating loan limits

Aid for farmers who suffered losses above the national average or were forced to sell at depressed prices

Lawmakers plan to attach the measure to upcoming government funding legislation

Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) payments remain scheduled for February 28

A possible government shutdown on January 30 could:

Delay FBA payments

Delay any new farm aid package

The House and Senate have passed several spending bills, but key issues remain unresolved

🌍 Global Trade & Geopolitics

President Trump announced new tariffs on NATO allies over Greenland

10% tariffs begin February 1

Increase to 25% on June 1

Tariffs remain until the US is able to purchase Greenland

The EU is weighing retaliatory trade measures

Trump also said he would consider using force if negotiations fail

Market reaction:

S&P 500 futures down 1.8%

European and UK equities sharply lower

US dollar weaker against major currencies

🇨🇦🇨🇳 Canada–China Trade Deal

China will reduce tariffs on Canadian canola oil from 85% to 15% by March 1

Tariffs also reduced on:

Lobsters

Crabs

Peas

Canada will impose a 6.1% tariff on Chinese EVs

China has reportedly purchased its first Canadian canola cargo since October

Canada continues diversifying trade away from the US

See Canola chart below

🌱 South American Crop Update

Brazil’s soybean harvest is ahead of schedule

2% harvested as of last Thursday

vs. 1.7% at the same time last year

Rainfall has been near normal overall, with slightly drier conditions in southern areas

World Weather notes a La Niña-style dry bias, but says it’s unlikely to threaten production

See US/Brazil soybean production chart below

📊 Fund Positioning (CFTC)

Large speculators were heavy sellers last week:

Corn: Net sellers of 78k contracts

Net short now 91k (largest since late October)

Soybeans: Net sellers of 46k contracts

Net short 20k (largest since mid-October)

Wheat: Net buyers of 1k SRW contracts

See Fund Tracker charts below

🚢 Export Activity

USDA reported multiple corn flash sales:

298k mt to unknown destinations

120k mt to Japan

Both sales are for the 2025/26 marketing year

Accumulated corn sales are now 29% higher than last year

🐄 Cattle Market Shock

Live and feeder cattle futures plunged Friday on screwworm concerns

Texas officials report 14 active cases within 200 miles of the US border

The pest is expected to eventually reach the US

Market reaction:

Live cattle down as much as $4.45

Feeder cattle down as much as $8.10

See Feeder Cattle chart below