No Surprise if Russia Takes Kyiv /fmr CIA Analyst Larry Johnson

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Larry Johnson argues that there is deep division and strategic confusion on the European side of the Ukraine war. Despite what he sees as a lack of a viable military path for Ukraine — along with internal political fractures within the Zelensky government — European leaders, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, continue pushing confrontation with Russia. He attributes this to longstanding hostility toward Russia, cultural and ideological differences, and competition over Russia’s natural resources.

He claims there is a growing disconnect between European political elites and their populations. Leaders like Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Keir Starmer are described as having weak domestic support while continuing hardline policies. Meanwhile, figures like Robert Fico and Viktor Orban are portrayed as advocating negotiation but facing pressure from the European Union.

On the Russian side, the discussion addresses claims of internal divisions within the Kremlin over how to handle negotiations with the U.S. Some reports suggest debate between those favoring a deal with Washington and those pushing for total military victory. However, the speaker dismisses claims by commentator John Helmer of serious Kremlin fractures, arguing instead that Russia remains unified.

The speaker emphasizes that Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, believe the U.S. has failed to honor prior agreements (referencing talks in Anchorage). He argues that the U.S. has not lifted sanctions, unfrozen assets, or taken tangible steps toward normalization, and instead has increased sanctions — leading Russia to judge U.S. actions rather than rhetoric.

Regarding Russian strategy, the speaker contends that Russia is deliberately conducting a limited “special military operation,” not full mobilization. He argues that Russia is advancing steadily, inflicting heavy Ukrainian losses, and is not under pressure to escalate quickly. Claims that Russia is moving either too slowly or too quickly are dismissed as contradictory Western narratives.

Overall, the discussion portrays:

Europe as politically divided and strategically misguided.

Russia as patient and methodical.

The U.S. as rhetorically active but substantively inconsistent.

Internal Russian divisions as overstated.